selected scholarly activity
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academic article
- Age-dependence of healthcare interventions for COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada. BMC Public Health. 21:706. 2021
- Modelling song popularity as a contagious process. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 477:20210457-20210457. 2021
- On inferring evolutionary stability in finite populations using infinite population models. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 83:21. 2021
- Transmission dynamics are crucial to COVID-19 vaccination policy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 118:e2105878118-e2105878118. 2021
- The origins and potential future of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Current Biology. 31:R918-R929. 2021
- Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales. Theoretical Ecology. 1-16. 2021
- Forward-looking serial intervals correctly link epidemic growth to reproduction numbers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 118:e2011548118-e2011548118. 2021
- Patterns of smallpox mortality in London, England, over three centuries. PLoS Biology. 18:e3000506-e3000506. 2020
- Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 117:27703-27711. 2020
- Estimating epidemic coupling between populations from the time to invasion. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 17:20200523-20200523. 2020
- Estimating epidemic coupling between populations from the time to invasion: Estimating epidemic coupling between populations from the time to invasion. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 17. 2020
- Age-dependence of healthcare interventions for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario, Canada 2020
- Fast estimation of time-varying infectious disease transmission rates. PLoS Computational Biology. 16:e1008124-e1008124. 2020
- Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: Framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak: Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: Framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 17. 2020
- Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 17:20200144-20200144. 2020
- Call for transparency of COVID-19 models. Science The Scientific monthly. 368:482-483. 2020
- Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada. BMC Public Health. 19:1237. 2019
- Correction to: Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016. Demography. 2019
- Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016. Demography. 56:1723-1746. 2019
- Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 16:20190202-20190202. 2019
- Human ectoparasite transmission of the plague during the Second Pandemic is only weakly supported by proposed mathematical models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 115:E7892-E7893. 2018
- Equivalence of the Erlang Seir Epidemic Model and the Renewal Equation 2018
- Pandemic Paradox: Early Life H2N2 Pandemic Influenza Infection Enhanced Susceptibility to Death during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic. mBio. 9. 2018
- On selection in finite populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 76:645-678. 2018
- Equivalence of the Erlang-Distributed SEIR Epidemic Model and the Renewal Equation. SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics. 78:3258-3278. 2018
- Predictors of influenza a molecular viral shedding in Hutterite communities. Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses. 11:254-262. 2017
- Evolutionary stability in continuous nonlinear public goods games. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 74:499-529. 2017
- Live Attenuated Versus Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Hutterite Children. Annals of Internal Medicine. 165:617-617. 2016
- Understanding apparently non-exponential outbreaks Comment on “Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review” by Gerardo Chowell et al.. Physics of Life Reviews. 18:105-108. 2016
- The cohort effect in childhood disease dynamics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 13:20160156-20160156. 2016
- Bifurcations and Chaotic Dynamics in a Tumour-Immune-Virus System. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena. 11:65-85. 2016
- Effect of Influenza Vaccination of Children on Infection Rate in Hutterite Communities: Follow-Up Study of a Randomized Trial. PLoS ONE. 11:e0167281-e0167281. 2016
- Postcopulatory consequences of female mate choice in a fish with alternative reproductive tactics. Behavioral Ecology. 27:312-320. 2016
- The importance of accurately modelling human interactions. Physics of Life Reviews. 15:51-52. 2015
- Game theory of pre-emptive vaccination before bioterrorism or accidental release of smallpox. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 12:20141387-20141387. 2015
- A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 12:20150024-20150024. 2015
- Absolute Judgment of Musical Interval Width. Music Perception. 32:186-200. 2014
- Erratum to: Persistence of an invasive fish (Neogobius melanostomus) in a contaminated ecosystem. Biological Invasions. 16:2463-2463. 2014
- Persistence of an invasive fish (Neogobius melanostomus) in a contaminated ecosystem. Biological Invasions. 16:2449-2461. 2014
- Yersinia pestis and the Plague of Justinian 541–543 AD: a genomic analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 14:319-326. 2014
- Population-level effects of suppressing fever. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 281:20132570-20132570. 2014
- Second-Pandemic Strain ofVibrio choleraefrom the Philadelphia Cholera Outbreak of 1849. New England Journal of Medicine. 370:334-340. 2014
- Estimating Initial Epidemic Growth Rates. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 76:245-260. 2014
- Patterns of spread of influenza A in Canada. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 280:20131174-20131174. 2013
- Characteristics of respiratory viral infections during influenza season in Canadian Hutterite Communities. Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses. 7:1088-1092. 2013
- Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 280:20131345-20131345. 2013
- Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 10:20130098-20130098. 2013
- Age-Specific Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Unravelling the Mystery of High Young Adult Mortality. PLoS ONE. 8:e69586-e69586. 2013
- Multifractal signatures of infectious diseases. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 9:2167-2180. 2012
- Early Real-Time Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Emerging Infectious Diseases. Physical Review X. 2. 2012
- Effects of School Closure on Incidence of Pandemic Influenza in Alberta, Canada. Annals of Internal Medicine. 156:173-173. 2012
- Erratum: A draft genome of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death. Nature Nature: New biology. 480:278-278. 2011
- Multi-Stability and Multi-Instability Phenomena in a Mathematical Model of Tumor-Immune-Virus Interactions. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 73:2932-2961. 2011
- Age-specific mortality risk from pandemic influenza. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 288:29-34. 2011
- A draft genome of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death. Nature Nature: New biology. 478:506-510. 2011
- Targeted enrichment of ancient pathogens yielding the pPCP1 plasmid of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 108:E746-E752. 2011
- Parameterizing state–space models for infectious disease dynamics by generalized profiling: measles in Ontario. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 8:961-974. 2011
- Herald waves of cholera in nineteenth century London. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 8:756-760. 2011
- Cholera Epidemic in Haiti, 2010: Using a Transmission Model to Explain Spatial Spread of Disease and Identify Optimal Control Interventions. Annals of Internal Medicine. 154:593-593. 2011
- Mechanistic modelling of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Theoretical Ecology. 4:283-288. 2011
- Attractivity of coherent manifolds in metapopulation models. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 62:509-541. 2011
- Interactions Between the Immune System and Cancer: A Brief Review of Non-spatial Mathematical Models. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 73:2-32. 2011
- Modeling anti-tumor Th1 and Th2 immunity in the rejection of melanoma. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 265:467-480. 2010
- Multiple Transmission Pathways and Disease Dynamics in a Waterborne Pathogen Model. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 72:1506-1533. 2010
- Influenza Vaccination of Children and Infection Rates in the Community—Reply. JAMA - Journal of the American Medical Association. 303:2355-2355. 2010
- Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Risk for Nurses after Trivalent Vaccination. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 16:719-720. 2010
- Effect of Influenza Vaccination of Children on Infection Rates in Hutterite Communities. JAMA - Journal of the American Medical Association. 303:943-943. 2010
- Surgical Masks vs N95 Respirators for Preventing Influenza—Reply. JAMA - Journal of the American Medical Association. 303:937-937. 2010
- Demography and substrate affinity of the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in Hamilton Harbour. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 36:115-122. 2010
- Population dynamics of live-attenuated virus vaccines. Theoretical Population Biology. 77:79-94. 2010
- Reconstructing influenza incidence by deconvolution of daily mortality time series. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 106:21825-21829. 2009
- Surgical Mask vs N95 Respirator for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Workers. JAMA - Journal of the American Medical Association. 302:1865-1865. 2009
- Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America. Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses. 3:215-222. 2009
- Circulating Vaccine Derived Polio Viruses and their Impact on Global Polio Eradication. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 70:253-280. 2008
- Epidemiological effects of seasonal oscillations in birth rates. Theoretical Population Biology. 72:274-291. 2007
- Vaccinating to Protect a Vulnerable Subpopulation. PLoS Medicine. 4:e174-e174. 2007
- Correction for Earn et al., Global asymptotic coherence in discrete dynamical systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 103:19605-19605. 2006
- Generality of the Final Size Formula for an Epidemic of a Newly Invading Infectious Disease. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 68:679-702. 2006
- Global asymptotic coherence in discrete dynamical systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 103:3968-3971. 2006
- Mortality due to Influenza in the United States—An Annualized Regression Approach Using Multiple-Cause Mortality Data. American Journal of Epidemiology. 163:181-187. 2006
- Generalized synchronization induced by noise and parameter mismatching in Hindmarsh–Rose neurons. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals. 23:1605-1611. 2005
- Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 101:16915-16916. 2004
- Vaccination and the theory of games. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 101:13391-13394. 2004
- Group interest versus self-interest in smallpox vaccination policy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 100:10564-10567. 2003
- Transients and attractors in epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 270:1573-1578. 2003
- Ecology and evolution of the flu. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 17:334-340. 2002
- Coherence and Conservation. Science The Scientific monthly. 290:1360-1364. 2000
- Pertussis transmission in England and Wales. The Lancet. 355:1553-1554. 2000
- Pertussis transmission in England and Wales. The Lancet. 355:1553-1553. 2000
- A Simple Model for Complex Dynamical Transitions in Epidemics. Science The Scientific monthly. 287:667-670. 2000
- Impact of immunisation on pertussis transmission in England and Wales. The Lancet. 355:285-286. 2000
- Opposite Patterns of Synchrony in Sympatric Disease Metapopulations. Science The Scientific monthly. 286:968-971. 1999
- The cost of polygyny and the evolution of female care in poison frogs. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. 66:515-538. 1999
- Imperfect female choice and male mating skew on leks of different sizes. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology. 45:277-281. 1999
- Complex dynamics in ecology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 14:43-44. 1999
- The cost of polygyny and the evolution of female care in poison frogs. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. 66:515-538. 1999
- On the evolutionary pathway of parental care in mouth–brooding cichlid fishes. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 265:2217-2222. 1998
- Population dynamic interference among childhood diseases. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 265:2033-2041. 1998
- Persistence, chaos and synchrony in ecology and epidemiology. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 265:7-10. 1998
- A systematic error in tests of ideal free theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 264:1671-1675. 1997
- Chaos in a cup of flour. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 12:171-171. 1997
- An Evolutionary Model of Parental Care in St. Peter's Fish. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 184:423-431. 1997
- Potential-density basis sets in axisymmetric coordinates. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. 282:1129-1142. 1996
- Potential-Density Basis Sets for Galactic Disks. Astrophysical Journal. 465:91-91. 1996
- Cooperation of orbital streams in disc galaxies. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. 278:395-405. 1996
- The Optimal N-Body Method for Stability Studies of Galaxies. Astrophysical Journal. 451:533-533. 1995
- Symplectic integration without roundoff error. Lecture Notes in Physics. 430:122-130. 1994
- Exact numerical studies of Hamiltonian maps: Iterating without roundoff error. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena. 56:1-22. 1992
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book
- A Light Introduction to Modelling Recurrent Epidemics. Ed. 1945. 2008
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conference paper
- Potential-Density Basis Sets for Three-Dimensional Disks. Iau Symposia. 509-510. 1996