David Earn
Professor, Mathematics and Statistics

chapters

• Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases.  151-186. 2009
• Potential-Density Basis Sets for Three-Dimensional Disks.  509-510. 1996

conferences

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• Organizer's summary, highlights and wrap-up
• Participant in continuous discussions
• Participant in continuous discussions and writing
• Revealing disease ecology from historical records over the last seven centuries

journal articles

• Attenuation of virulence in Yersinia pestis across three plague pandemics.  Science.  388:eadt3880. 2025
• Using artificial intelligence tools to automate data extraction for living evidence syntheses..  PLoS ONE.  20:e0320151. 2025
• Uncertainty in COVID-19 transmission could undermine our ability to predict long COVID..  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  21:20240438. 2024
• Mathematical modelling for pandemic preparedness in Canada: Learning from COVID-19..  Canada Communicable Disease Report.  50:345-356. 2024
• Fitting Epidemic Models to Data: A Tutorial in Memory of Fred Brauer.  Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.  86:109. 2024
• Uniform Asymptotic Approximations for the Phase Plane Trajectories of the SIR Model with Vital Dynamics.  SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics.  84:1580-1608. 2024
• Canada’s provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses.  Canadian Journal of Public Health.  115:541-557. 2024
• Effects of group size and population size on the evolutionary stability of cooperation.  Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.  480. 2024
• The probability of epidemic burnout in the stochastic SIR model with vital dynamics.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  121:e2313708120-e2313708120. 2024
• Modelling the impacts of male alternative reproductive tactics on population dynamics.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  20:20230359. 2023
• Protocol for a living evidence synthesis on variants of concern and COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness.  Vaccine.  41:6411-6418. 2023
• Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: Response to Maruotti et al. (2022).  Journal of Medical Virology.  95:e28474. 2023
• Irregular population cycles driven by environmental stochasticity and saddle crawlbys.  Oikos.  2023. 2023
• From science to politics: COVID-19 information fatigue on YouTube.  BMC International Health and Human Rights.  22:816. 2022
• Testing and Isolation Efficacy: Insights from a Simple Epidemic Model.  Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.  84:66. 2022
• Face masking and COVID-19: potential effects of variolation on transmission dynamics.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  19:20210781. 2022
• The need for linked genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.  Canada Communicable Disease Report.  48:131-139. 2022
• Age-dependence of healthcare interventions for COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada.  BMC International Health and Human Rights.  21:706. 2021
• Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales.  Theoretical Ecology.  14:625-640. 2021
• Adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine versus quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Hutterite Children: A randomized clinical trial.  Vaccine.  39:6843-6851. 2021
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• Modelling song popularity as a contagious process.  Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.  477:20210457-20210457. 2021
• On inferring evolutionary stability in finite populations using infinite population models.  Journal of Mathematical Biology.  83:21. 2021
• Transmission dynamics are crucial to COVID-19 vaccination policy.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  118:e2105878118. 2021
• The origins and potential future of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the evolving COVID-19 pandemic.  Current Biology.  31:R918-R929. 2021
• Forward-looking serial intervals correctly link epidemic growth to reproduction numbers.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  118:e2011548118. 2021
• Patterns of smallpox mortality in London, England, over three centuries.  PLoS Biology.  18:e3000506-e3000506. 2020
• Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  117:27703-27711. 2020
• Estimating epidemic coupling between populations from the time to invasion.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  17:20200523-20200523. 2020
• Age-dependence of healthcare interventions for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario, Canada 2020
• Fast estimation of time-varying infectious disease transmission rates.  PLoS Computational Biology.  16:e1008124-e1008124. 2020
• Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  17:20200144-20200144. 2020
• Call for transparency of COVID-19 models.  Science.  368:482-483. 2020
• Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada.  BMC International Health and Human Rights.  19:1237. 2019
• Correction to: Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016.  Demography.  2019
• Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016.  Demography.  56:1723-1746. 2019
• Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  16:20190202-20190202. 2019
• Human ectoparasite transmission of the plague during the Second Pandemic is only weakly supported by proposed mathematical models.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  115:E7892-E7893. 2018
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• Pandemic Paradox: Early Life H2N2 Pandemic Influenza Infection Enhanced Susceptibility to Death during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic.  mBio.  9:e02091-e02017. 2018
• On selection in finite populations.  Journal of Mathematical Biology.  76:645-678. 2018
• Equivalence of the Erlang-Distributed SEIR Epidemic Model and the Renewal Equation.  SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics.  78:3258-3278. 2018
• Predictors of influenza a molecular viral shedding in Hutterite communities.  Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses.  11:254-262. 2017
• Evolutionary stability in continuous nonlinear public goods games.  Journal of Mathematical Biology.  74:499-529. 2017
• Live Attenuated Versus Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Hutterite Children.  ACP journal club.  165:617-617. 2016
• Understanding apparently non-exponential outbreaks Comment on “Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review” by Gerardo Chowell et al..  Physics of Life Reviews.  18:105-108. 2016
• The cohort effect in childhood disease dynamics.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  13:20160156-20160156. 2016
• Bifurcations and Chaotic Dynamics in a Tumour-Immune-Virus System.  Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena.  11:65-85. 2016
• Effect of Influenza Vaccination of Children on Infection Rate in Hutterite Communities: Follow-Up Study of a Randomized Trial.  PLoS ONE.  11:e0167281-e0167281. 2016
• Postcopulatory consequences of female mate choice in a fish with alternative reproductive tactics.  Behavioral Ecology.  27:312-320. 2016
• The importance of accurately modelling human interactions.  Physics of Life Reviews.  15:51-52. 2015
• Game theory of pre-emptive vaccination before bioterrorism or accidental release of smallpox.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  12:20141387-20141387. 2015
• A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  12:20150024-20150024. 2015
• Absolute Judgment of Musical Interval Width.  Music Perception.  32:186-200. 2014
• Erratum to: Persistence of an invasive fish (Neogobius melanostomus) in a contaminated ecosystem.  Biological Invasions.  16:2463-2463. 2014
• Persistence of an invasive fish (Neogobius melanostomus) in a contaminated ecosystem.  Biological Invasions.  16:2449-2461. 2014
• Yersinia pestis and the Plague of Justinian 541–543 AD: a genomic analysis.  The Lancet Infectious Diseases.  14:319-326. 2014
• Population-level effects of suppressing fever.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences.  281:20132570-20132570. 2014
• Second-Pandemic Strain ofVibrio choleraefrom the Philadelphia Cholera Outbreak of 1849.  New England Journal of Medicine.  370:334-340. 2014
• Estimating Initial Epidemic Growth Rates.  Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.  76:245-260. 2014
• Patterns of spread of influenza A in Canada.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences.  280:20131174-20131174. 2013
• Characteristics of respiratory viral infections during influenza season in Canadian Hutterite Communities.  Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses.  7:1088-1092. 2013
• Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences.  280:20131345-20131345. 2013
• Effects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  10:20130098-20130098. 2013
• Age-Specific Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Unravelling the Mystery of High Young Adult Mortality.  PLoS ONE.  8:e69586-e69586. 2013
• Multifractal signatures of infectious diseases.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  9:2167-2180. 2012
• Early Real-Time Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of Emerging Infectious Diseases.  Physical Review X.  2. 2012
• Effects of School Closure on Incidence of Pandemic Influenza in Alberta, Canada.  ACP journal club.  156:173-173. 2012
• Erratum: A draft genome of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death.  Nature.  480:278-278. 2011
• Multi-Stability and Multi-Instability Phenomena in a Mathematical Model of Tumor-Immune-Virus Interactions.  Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.  73:2932-2961. 2011
• Age-specific mortality risk from pandemic influenza.  Journal of Theoretical Biology.  288:29-34. 2011
• A draft genome of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death.  Nature.  478:506-510. 2011
• Targeted enrichment of ancient pathogens yielding the pPCP1 plasmid ofYersinia pestisfrom victims of the Black Death.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  108:E746-E752. 2011
• Parameterizing state–space models for infectious disease dynamics by generalized profiling: measles in Ontario.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  8:961-974. 2011
• Herald waves of cholera in nineteenth century London.  Journal of the Royal Society Interface.  8:756-760. 2011
• Cholera Epidemic in Haiti, 2010: Using a Transmission Model to Explain Spatial Spread of Disease and Identify Optimal Control Interventions.  ACP journal club.  154:593-593. 2011
• Mechanistic modelling of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic.  Theoretical Ecology.  4:283-288. 2011
• Attractivity of coherent manifolds in metapopulation models.  Journal of Mathematical Biology.  62:509-541. 2011
• Interactions Between the Immune System and Cancer: A Brief Review of Non-spatial Mathematical Models.  Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.  73:2-32. 2011
• Modeling anti-tumor Th1 and Th2 immunity in the rejection of melanoma.  Journal of Theoretical Biology.  265:467-480. 2010
• Multiple Transmission Pathways and Disease Dynamics in a Waterborne Pathogen Model.  Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.  72:1506-1533. 2010
• Influenza Vaccination of Children and Infection Rates in the Community—Reply.  Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).  303:2355-2355. 2010
• Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Risk for Nurses after Trivalent Vaccination.  Emerging Infectious Diseases.  16:719-720. 2010
• Effect of Influenza Vaccination of Children on Infection Rates in Hutterite Communities.  Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).  303:943-943. 2010
• Surgical Masks vs N95 Respirators for Preventing Influenza—Reply.  Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).  303:937-937. 2010
• Demography and substrate affinity of the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in Hamilton Harbour.  Journal of Great Lakes Research.  36:115-122. 2010
• Population dynamics of live-attenuated virus vaccines.  Theoretical Population Biology.  77:79-94. 2010
• Reconstructing influenza incidence by deconvolution of daily mortality time series.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  106:21825-21829. 2009
• Surgical Mask vs N95 Respirator for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Workers.  Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).  302:1865-1865. 2009
• Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America.  Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses.  3:215-222. 2009
• A Light Introduction to Modelling Recurrent Epidemics.  Lecture Notes in Mathematics.  1945:3-17. 2008
• Circulating Vaccine Derived Polio Viruses and their Impact on Global Polio Eradication.  Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.  70:253-280. 2008
• Parameter Estimation for Differential Equations: a Generalized Smoothing Approach.  Journal of The Royal Statistical Society Series B-statistical Methodology.  69:741-796. 2007
• Epidemiological effects of seasonal oscillations in birth rates.  Theoretical Population Biology.  72:274-291. 2007
• Vaccinating to Protect a Vulnerable Subpopulation.  PLoS Medicine.  4:e174-e174. 2007
• Correction for Earn et al., Global asymptotic coherence in discrete dynamical systems.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  103:19605-19605. 2006
• Generality of the Final Size Formula for an Epidemic of a Newly Invading Infectious Disease.  Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.  68:679-702. 2006
• Global asymptotic coherence in discrete dynamical systems.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  103:3968-3971. 2006
• Mortality due to Influenza in the United States—An Annualized Regression Approach Using Multiple-Cause Mortality Data.  American Journal of Epidemiology.  163:181-187. 2006
• Generalized synchronization induced by noise and parameter mismatching in Hindmarsh–Rose neurons.  Chaos, Solitons and Fractals.  23:1605-1611. 2005
• Generalized synchronization induced by noise and parameter mismatching in Hindmarsh–Rose neurons.  Chaos, Solitons and Fractals.  23:1605-1611. 2005
• Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  101:16915-16916. 2004
• Vaccination and the theory of games.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  101:13391-13394. 2004
• Group interest versus self-interest in smallpox vaccination policy.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  100:10564-10567. 2003
• Transients and attractors in epidemics.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences.  270:1573-1578. 2003
• Interepidemic intervals in forced and unforced SEIR models 2003
• Ecology and evolution of the flu.  Trends in Ecology and Evolution.  17:334-340. 2002
• Coherence and Conservation.  Science.  290:1360-1364. 2000
• Pertussis transmission in England and Wales.  The Lancet.  355:1553-1554. 2000
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• A Simple Model for Complex Dynamical Transitions in Epidemics.  Science.  287:667-670. 2000
• Impact of immunisation on pertussis transmission in England and Wales.  The Lancet.  355:285-286. 2000
• Opposite Patterns of Synchrony in Sympatric Disease Metapopulations.  Science.  286:968-971. 1999
• The cost of polygyny and the evolution of female care in poison frogs.  Biological Journal of the Linnean Society.  66:515-538. 1999
• The cost of polygyny and the evolution of female care in poison frogs.  Biological Journal of the Linnean Society.  66:515-538. 1999
• Imperfect female choice and male mating skew on leks of different sizes.  Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology.  45:277-281. 1999
• Complex dynamics in ecology.  Trends in Ecology and Evolution.  14:43-44. 1999
• On the evolutionary pathway of parental care in mouth–brooding cichlid fishes.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences.  265:2217-2222. 1998
• Population dynamic interference among childhood diseases.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences.  265:2033-2041. 1998
• Persistence, chaos and synchrony in ecology and epidemiology.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences.  265:7-10. 1998
• A systematic error in tests of ideal free theory.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences.  264:1671-1675. 1997
• Chaos in a cup of flour.  Trends in Ecology and Evolution.  12:171-171. 1997
• An Evolutionary Model of Parental Care in St. Peter's Fish.  Journal of Theoretical Biology.  184:423-431. 1997
• Potential-density basis sets in axisymmetric coordinates.  Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.  282:1129-1142. 1996
• Arnold diffusion in symplectic lattice maps 1996
• Potential-Density Basis Sets for Galactic Disks.  The Astrophysical Journal (ApJ).  465:91-91. 1996
• Cooperation of orbital streams in disc galaxies.  Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.  278:395-405. 1996
• Potential-Density Basis Sets for Three-Dimensional Disks.  Iau Symposia.  169:509-510. 1996
• The Optimal N-Body Method for Stability Studies of Galaxies.  The Astrophysical Journal (ApJ).  451:533-533. 1995
• Symplectic integration without roundoff error.  Lecture Notes in Physics.  430:122-130. 1994
• Exact numerical studies of Hamiltonian maps: Iterating without roundoff error.  Physica D : Non-linear phenomena.  56:1-22. 1992
• Effects of group size and population size on the evolutionary stability of cooperation.  Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 
• Effects of group size and population size on the evolutionary stability of cooperation.  Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 
• La nécessité d’une surveillance génomique liée du SRAS-CoV-2.  Canada Communicable Disease Report.  48:147-155.
• Uniform asymptotic approximations for the phase plane trajectories of the SIR model with vital dynamics.  SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics. 

posters

preprints

• Toward a comprehensive system for constructing compartmental epidemic models 2023
• Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: response to Maruotti et al. 2022 2022
• From Science to Politics: COVID-19 Information Fatigue on YouTube 2022
• Testing and Isolation Efficacy: Insights from a Simple Epidemic Model 2021
• Age-dependence of healthcare interventions for COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada 2020
• Cohort-based approach to understanding the roles of generation and serial intervals in shaping epidemiological dynamics 2020
• Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak 2020
• Patterns of smallpox mortality in London, England, over three centuries 2019
• Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing 2019
• Instability of cooperation in finite populations 2019
• Selection may oppose invasion, yet favour fixation: consequences for evolutionary stability 2019
• Early Real-time Estimation of Infectious Disease Reproduction Number 2009
• Potential-Density Basis Sets for Galactic Disks 1996
• THE OPTIMAL N-BODY METHOD FOR STABILITY STUDIES OF GALAXIES 1995
• Symplectic Integration without Roundoff Error 1994
• Canada's Provincial Covid-19 Pandemic Modelling Efforts: A Review of Mathematical Models and Their Impacts on the Responses
• Charting a future for emerging infectious disease modelling in Canada
• Over a Century of Infectious Disease Surveillance in Canada: Introducing the Canadian Disease Incidence Dataset (CANDID)

presentations

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• Revealing disease ecology from historical records over the last seven centuries 2023

conferences

• Organizer's summary, highlights and wrap-up