A Simple Model for Complex Dynamical Transitions in Epidemics Journal Articles

abstract

• Dramatic changes in patterns of epidemics have been observed throughout this century. For childhood infectious diseases such as measles, the major transitions are between regular cycles and irregular, possibly chaotic epidemics, and from regionally synchronized oscillations to complex, spatially incoherent epidemics. A simple model can explain both kinds of transitions as the consequences of changes in birth and vaccination rates. Measles is a natural ecological system that exhibits different dynamical transitions at different times and places, yet all of these transitions can be predicted as bifurcations of a single nonlinear model.

authors

• Earn, David
• Rohani, Pejman
• Bolker, Benjamin
• Grenfell, Bryan T

status

• published 

publication date

• January 28, 2000

has subject area

• Baltimore (MeSH)
• Birth Rate (MeSH)
• Child (MeSH)
• Developing Countries (MeSH)
• Disease Outbreaks (MeSH)
• Disease Susceptibility (MeSH)
• England (MeSH)
• Epidemiologic Methods (MeSH)
• General Science & Technology (Science Metrix)
• Humans (MeSH)
• Incidence (MeSH)
• London (MeSH)
• Measles (MeSH)
• Measles Vaccine (MeSH)
• Monte Carlo Method (MeSH)
• New York City (MeSH)
• Nonlinear Dynamics (MeSH)
• Seasons (MeSH)
• Vaccination (MeSH)

published in

• Science  Journal

keywords

• Baltimore
• Birth Rate
• Child
• Developing Countries
• Disease Outbreaks
• Disease Susceptibility
• England
• Epidemiologic Methods
• Humans
• Incidence
• London
• Measles
• Measles Vaccine
• Monte Carlo Method
• New York City
• Nonlinear Dynamics
• Seasons
• Vaccination

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1126/science.287.5453.667

PubMed ID

• 10650003

start page

• 667

end page

• 670

volume

• 287

issue

• 5453