Journal article
Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics
Abstract
Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.
Authors
Dushoff J; Plotkin JB; Levin SA; Earn DJD
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 101, No. 48, pp. 16915–16916
Publisher
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publication Date
November 30, 2004
DOI
10.1073/pnas.0407293101
ISSN
0027-8424