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Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of...
Journal article

Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics

Abstract

Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.

Authors

Dushoff J; Plotkin JB; Levin SA; Earn DJD

Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 101, No. 48, pp. 16915–16916

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Publication Date

November 30, 2004

DOI

10.1073/pnas.0407293101

ISSN

0027-8424