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Canada’s provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling...
Journal article

Canada’s provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses

Abstract

SettingMathematical modelling played an important role in the public health response to COVID-19 in Canada. Variability in epidemic trajectories, modelling approaches, and data infrastructure across provinces provides a unique opportunity to understand the factors that shaped modelling strategies.InterventionProvinces implemented stringent pandemic interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, considering evidence from epidemic models. This study aimed to summarize provincial COVID-19 modelling efforts. We identified modelling teams working with provincial decision-makers, through referrals and membership in Canadian modelling networks. Information on models, data sources, and knowledge translation were abstracted using standardized instruments.OutcomesWe obtained information from six provinces. For provinces with sustained community transmission, initial modelling efforts focused on projecting epidemic trajectories and healthcare demands, and evaluating impacts of proposed interventions. In provinces with low community transmission, models emphasized quantifying importation risks. Most of the models were compartmental and deterministic, with projection horizons of a few weeks. Models were updated regularly or replaced by new ones, adapting to changing local epidemic dynamics, pathogen characteristics, vaccines, and requests from public health. Surveillance datasets for cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and serological studies were the main data sources for model calibration. Access to data for modelling and the structure for knowledge translation differed markedly between provinces.ImplicationProvincial modelling efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic were tailored to local contexts and modulated by available resources. Strengthening Canadian modelling capacity, developing and sustaining collaborations between modellers and governments, and ensuring earlier access to linked and timely surveillance data could help improve pandemic preparedness.

Authors

Xia Y; Flores Anato JL; Colijn C; Janjua N; Irvine M; Williamson T; Varughese MB; Li M; Osgood N; Earn DJD

Journal

Canadian Journal of Public Health, Vol. 115, No. 4, pp. 541–557

Publisher

Springer Nature

Publication Date

August 1, 2024

DOI

10.17269/s41997-024-00910-9

ISSN

0008-4263

Labels

Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

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