A bi-level chance-constrained programming method for quantifying the effectiveness of water-trading to water-food-ecology nexus in Amu Darya River basin of Central Asia
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abstract
Issues of water scarcity, food crisis, and ecological degradation pose great challenges to the sustainable development of Central Asia. In this study, a bi-level chance-constrained programming (BCCP) method is developed for planning water-food-ecology (WFE) nexus system of the Amu Darya River basin, where the efficiency of water-trading mechanism and the impact of uncertain water-availability are examined. This is the first attempt for planning WFE nexus system by incorporating chance-constrained programming (CCP) within a bi-level optimization framework. BCCP can reflect the risk of violating probabilistic constraint under uncertainty as well as balance the tradeoff between two-level decision makers in the WFE nexus system. Under trading scheme, multiple scenarios in association with different food demand, ecological-water requirement, and water availability are examined. Major findings are: (i) compared with that under non-trading, system benefits would increase [3.9, 20.4]% under trading scenarios, disclosing that water trading is an effective mechanism for the study basin; (ii) when food demand increases 10.5%, water allocated to ecological use would decrease [0.9, 2.7]% under all scenarios, revealing that agriculture can squeeze ecological water; (iii) both system benefit and water allocation would increase with p level, implying there is a tradeoff between system benefit and system-failure risk. These findings can gain insight into the interaction between two-level stakeholders and objectives as well as provide decision support for WFE nexus synergetic management.
