Modelling and estimation of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India, 2010–2011 Journal Articles uri icon

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  • This paper provides HIV estimation methodology used in India and key HIV estimates for 2010–2011. We used a modified version of the Spectrum tool that included an Estimation and Projection Package as part of its AIDS Impact Module. Inputs related to population size, age-specific pattern of fertility, gender-ratio at birth, age and gender-specific pattern of mortality, and volume and age–gender distribution of net migration were derived from census records, the Sample Registration System and large-scale demographic health surveys. Epidemiological and programmatic data were derived from HIV sentinel surveillance, large-scale epidemiological surveys and the programme management information system. Estimated adult HIV prevalence retained a declining trend in India, following its peak in 2002 at a level of 0.41% (within bounds 0.35–0.47%). By 2010 and 2011, it levelled at estimates of 0.28% (0.24–0.34%) and 0.27% (0.22–0.33%), respectively. The estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) reduced by 8% between 2007 and 2011. While children accounted for approximately 6.3% of total HIV infections in 2007, this proportion increased to about 7% in 2011. With changing priorities and epidemic patterns, the programme has to customise its strategies to effectively address the emerging vulnerabilities and adapt them to suit the requirements of different geographical regions.


  • Raj, Yujwal
  • Sahu, Damodar
  • Pandey, Arvind
  • Venkatesh, S
  • Reddy, DCS
  • Bakkali, Taoufik
  • Das, Chinmoyee
  • Singh, Kh Jitenkumar
  • Kant, Shashi
  • Bhattacharya, M
  • Stover, John
  • Jha, Ugra Mohan
  • Kumar, Pradeep
  • Mishra, Ram
  • Chandra, Nalini
  • Gulati, BK
  • Mathur, Sharad
  • Joshi, Deepika
  • Chavan, L

publication date

  • December 2016