Switching regime analysis for nonlinear hydrologic time series

Time series models are valuable analytical tools for assessing potential impacts of climate change on water resources systems. Nevertheless, few studies have been found applying switching regime analysis to nonlinear hydrologic time series forecasting or simulation. In this study, an approach is proposed to detect switching dynamics for hydrologic time series based on a hidden Markov model. The hidden Markov model theory and the change-point …