Mathematical model of the relationship between pH holding time and erosive esophagitis healing rates.
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abstract
Effective suppression of gastric acid secretion promotes healing of erosive esophagitis. Treatment guidelines recommend proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and histamine H2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs). Emerging evidence also supports potassium-competitive acid blockers (P-CABs). The aim was to construct a mathematical model to examine the relationship between pH holding time ratios (HTRs) and erosive esophagitis healing rates with H2RAs, PPIs and P-CABs. By literature search, we identified studies of H2RAs, PPIs or P-CABs that reported mean pH >4 HTRs at steady state (days 5-8) and erosive esophagitis healing rates after 4 and/or 8 weeks. We aggregated treatments by drug class and developed a non-linear, mixed-effects model to explore the relationship between pH >4 HTRs and healing rates. The pH dataset included 82 studies (4297 participants; 201 dosage arms); healing rate data came from 103 studies (43,417 patients; 196 treatment arms). P-CABs achieved the longest periods with intragastric pH >4, and the highest healing rates after 4 and 8 weeks. The predicted probabilities of achieving ≥90% healing rates at 8 weeks were 74.1% for P-CABs, 17.3% for PPIs and 0% for H2RAs. P-CABs provide the longest duration with intragastric pH >4 and, accordingly, the highest healing rates of erosive esophagitis.
