Las estimaciones erróneas de los daños del cambio climático

Economists predict that the damage caused by global warming will be 2.1% of world production if the average temperature of the planet’s surface increases by 3°C, and by 7.9% if it increases by 6°C. These estimates contrast with the prediction of scientists: the further reduction of human habitability due to climate change. But the models they use to make these predictions influence the international debate on the topic and the policy prescriptions. Here we review this empirical work and show that it seriously underestimates the damages of climate change by committing several mistakes. Most importantly, the DICE integrated evaluation model does not generate economic collapse, regardless of the level of damage. Due to these facts, these estimates should be rejected for not being scientific, and the models calibrated with them should not be used to assess the economic risks of climate change and to propose policies that mitigate the damages.