Outmigration from California: The Role of Migrant Selectivity

Frey (1995) noted that California generated two, separate outmigration streams. The first stream was composed of “negatively selected” migrants, or those with low education and low income levels. These migrants usually selected destinations in neighboring states such as Washington, Oregon, or Colorado. The second stream was more typical of interstate migration flows. Migrants were typically better educated, had higher incomes and destinations that were more national in scope (positively selected). The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the income selectivity of outmigrants from California. It was hypothesized that poorly educated migrants are negatively self‐selective and the better educated would be positively self‐selective. Using data derived from the 1990 PUMS data file, this paper studies the effects of expected wage differentials in determining the selectivity of outmigrants from California. Self‐selectivity is accounted for in the modeling process via a two‐stage estimation procedure, since estimated returns to migration based on a comparison of individual migrants may be biased due to self‐selection. Results reveal no significant or systematic selectivity of the better educated migrants, while self‐selection was more important among the poorly educated nonmigrants.