Modeling regional ecosystem development under uncertainty – A case study for New Binhai District of Tianjin

In this study, an interval-fuzzy regional ecosystem management (IF-REM) model is developed based on an interval fuzzy linear programming (IFLP) technique. The IF-REM model can handle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and discrete intervals; it also incorporates ecosystem service valuation directly into the optimization process, such that an effective linkage between economic values and ecosystem services can be provided. The IF-REM model is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem development in New Binhai District of Tianjin, where the natural ecosystem has suffered the severe degradation induced by large-scale land reclamation projects along the coastal line. Results of land use patterns, industrial pollution-mitigation schemes, and cost-benefit analysis can be obtained. The results suggest that large scale reclamation projects can bring a series of negative effects to the coastal ecosystem, such as endangering animals and plants, changing intrinsic gas regulation, as well as altering natural nutrient cycling; moreover, the current cost for land reclamation is too low to reflect the ecosystem losses and unable to curb excessive reclamation projects, which implies that ecosystem service valuation is of great significance. These findings can facilitate the local decision makers in not only considering regional ecosystem integrity but also gaining insights into the tradeoff between socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability.