Assessment of the effects of human activity and natural condition on the outflow of Syr Darya River: A stepwise-cluster factorial analysis method

Water scarcity causes a series of eco-environmental problems, such as land salinization, biodiversity reduction and food crisis, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the Aral Sea basin. In this study, a stepwise-cluster factorial analysis (SCFA) approach is proposed for assessing the effects of natural condition and human activity on the outflow of Syr Darya River (abbreviated as OSR) that has significant effects on the eco-environmental restoration of the Aral Sea. SCFA coupled stepwise cluster analysis and factorial analysis cannot only reflect the variability of outflow, but also identify the driving factors quantitatively. The results disclose that, in 1960-1991, the dominant factors (affecting the OSR) are upstream inflow (25.77%) > agricultural water use of Uzbekistan (7.21%) > industrial water use of Uzbekistan (4.53%) > agricultural water use of Kazakhstan (3.81%) > Precipitation (3.66%); interactions between upstream inflow and agricultural water use of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and interactions between reservoir and evapotranspiration have the significant effects on the OSR. Results also indicate that, in 1992-2015, the dominant factors that affect the OSR are agricultural water use of Uzbekistan (23.31%) > agricultural water use of Kazakhstan (22.15%) > industrial water use of Uzbekistan (8.31%) > domestic water use of Kazakhstan (4.68%) > agricultural water use of Tajikistan (4.54%) > domestic water use of Uzbekistan (4.41%); the interactions between industrial water use and agricultural water use of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and the interactions between reservoir and upstream inflow have the pivotal effects on OSR. In the future, when the agricultural water use of the basin decrease as 4% and the industry water use of Uzbekistan decrease as 2%, the OSR may recover to the middle level of 1970s. The results help identify the major factors affecting the outflow of Syr Darya River as well as seek an effective approach to restore the eco-environment of Aral Sea basin.