Emotional hyper‐reactivity and cardiometabolic risk in remitted bipolar patients: a machine learning approach

OBJECTIVE: Remitted bipolar disorder (BD) patients frequently present with chronic mood instability and emotional hyper-reactivity, associated with poor psychosocial functioning and low-grade inflammation. We investigated emotional hyper-reactivity as a dimension for characterization of remitted BD patients, and clinical and biological factors for identifying those with and without emotional hyper-reactivity. METHOD: A total of 635 adult remitted BD patients, evaluated in the French Network of Bipolar Expert Centers from 2010-2015, were assessed for emotional reactivity using the Multidimensional Assessment of Thymic States. Machine learning algorithms were used on clinical and biological variables to enhance characterization of patients. RESULTS: After adjustment, patients with emotional hyper-reactivity (n = 306) had significantly higher levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (P < 1.0 × 10^-8 ), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P < 1.0 × 10^-8 ), fasting glucose (P < 2.23 × 10^-6 ), glycated hemoglobin (P = 0.0008) and suicide attempts (P = 1.4 × 10^-8 ). Using models of combined clinical and biological factors for distinguishing BD patients with and without emotional hyper-reactivity, the strongest predictors were: systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, C-reactive protein and number of suicide attempts. This predictive model identified patients with emotional hyper-reactivity with 84.9% accuracy. CONCLUSION: The assessment of emotional hyper-reactivity in remitted BD patients is clinically relevant, particularly for identifying those at higher risk of cardiometabolic dysfunction, chronic inflammation, and suicide.