Persistence of Crime Hot Spots: An Ordered Probit Analysis

The temporal persistence of crime hot spots is recognized as a valuable indicator of consistent problem areas. The current literature has not adequately addressed the mechanisms that perpetuate or interrupt persistent crime hot spots. Investigating the persistence of violent crime hot spots in Columbus, Ohio, from 1994 to 2002, this study fills a gap in the literature by identifying neighborhood structural correlates that drive the persistence of hot spots. Specifically, this study identifies yearly crime hot spots, and estimates an ordered probit model to explore the neighborhood structural determinants. The results indicate that socio‐economic factors, identified from a synthesis of social disorganization theory and routine activity theory, significantly correlate with persistent patterns of violent crime hot spots. This gives evidence that a combination of the two ruling spatial theories of crime provides an applicable framework for understanding the temporal dimension of violent crime hot spots. By identifying the factors that contribute to the persistence of hot spots of crime, insights gained from the results can help to inform focused crime prevention efforts.