Occupational upgrading and within-occupation wage gaps: immigrant earnings integration in Canada, 2006-2021

This paper studies immigrant earnings integration in Canada using Labour Force Survey data from 2006 to 2021 and an empirical framework that separately models actual wages, counterfactual wages predicted from age- and gender-specific native wage profiles within detailed occupations, and the within-occupation wage gap between actual and predicted wages. This separation allows us to distinguish wage growth driven by occupational upgrading from within-occupation wage convergence. We find that years since migration are associated with substantial wage growth, led by occupational upgrading at arrival and increasingly by within-occupation convergence at longer durations. While within-occupation wage gaps do narrow modestly over time, convergence along this margin remains slow and incomplete. This pattern holds by gender, though precision varies by region of origin. The results indicate persistent gaps reflect both limited access to high-paying occupations and differential pay within jobs, with relative importance shifting over time. This highlights occupational placement and within-occupation pay as central, evolving margins along which immigrant earnings integration unfolds in Canada.