A simulation-based water-environment management model for regional sustainability in compound wetland ecosystem under multiple uncertainties

In this study, a simulation-based water-environment management model with Laplace scenario analysis (SWML) is developed for planning regional sustainability in compound wetland ecosystem. SWML can not only deal with spatial and temporal variations of hydrologic elements within the watershed, but also handle multiple uncertainties presented in terms of probability, possibility distributions, and fuzzy sets. Meanwhile, policy scenario analysis with Laplace's criterion (PSL) is introduced to handle probability of each scenario occurrence under insufficient data availability. The developed SWML is applied to water-environment management in Xixian wetland (located in north of China), where a compound wetland ecosystem (CWE) would be embedded into the concept of eco-county to remit contradiction between human activity and environmental issue through ecological mechanism. Results of ecological effect, water allocation pattern, pollution mitigation scheme and system benefit under various scenarios are obtained, which can support policymakers adjusting current plan with a cost-effective and sustainable manner. Meanwhile, satisfaction degrees for constraints using necessity levels and Laplace's criterions can support generating a robust plan associated with risk control for regional sustainability in CWE under uncertainties. The findings can support building a new construction of integrated human being–ecological environment system, which is beneficial to achieve integrity of socioeconomic development and eco-environmental sustainability.