A risk-based stochastic energy-water-carbon nexus analytical model to support provincial multi-system synergistic management – A case study of Shanxi, China

The synergistic management of energy-water‑carbon (EWC) nexus systems is crucial for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Therefore, a non-deterministic interval chance-constrained fractional optimization model for EWC nexus system (ICCF-EWC) management has been developed in this study. This model is capable of handling uncertain parameters represented as stochastic probability distributions and interval values, providing an effective approach to addressing dual-objective optimization problems. Meanwhile, this model is expected to investigate the effect of water scarcity/carbon abatement pressure on the overall system, and potential synergistic abatement effects. A case study of Shanxi Province shows that over the next 30 years, the cumulative installed capacity for clean and renewable energy will exceed 65 %. The dominance of coal-fired electricity will be considerably diminished, with wind power overtaking coal/gas-fired power by around 30 %. Moreover, water scarcity and carbon mitigation pressure would promote the development of electricity conversion mode to clean energy rather than the large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology upgradation of thermal power. The results can help support low-carbon transition of power systems at a province-level in China and financial incentives related policy making to advance water conservation and carbon emission mitigation. The developed model can also be adapted to other energy resource-dependent regional power systems.