An Ontology-Based Semantic Model of Mid-Winter Breakup of Ice Cover on Canadian Rivers

The formation and breakup of a fully developed ice cover is a yearly event on many Canadian rivers. In recent years, an increasing trend in the occurrence of Mid-Winter Breakups (MWBs) has been noted, in which the breakup process occurs early due to unseasonably higher winter temperatures. These events can trigger flooding, and also have a significant effect on timing of the subsequent spring breakup. Therefore, it is of great interest to develop a means to accurately forecast these events and their impacts, but the scarcity and complexity of MWB data presents challenges for traditional predictive modelling. To address these challenges an ontology-based semantic model was developed. The semantic model allows for organization and analysis of the acquired data giving insight on the relationships and connections between the data. This model is easily understood and provides a means for additional analysis of the data through network analysis techniques. The information gained from this model can form the basis of further data driven modelling, providing an easy-to-use means of analyzing the factors leading up to MWBs and their timing as well as serving as a decision support tool for affected communities.