A Multicentre Prospective Cohort Study to Identify High-Risk Transient Ischemic Attack/Minor Stroke Patients Benefitting from Echocardiography

BACKGROUND: We aimed to derive a clinical decision rule to identify patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke most likely to benefit from echocardiography. METHODS: This multicentre prospective cohort study enrolled adults diagnosed with TIA/minor stroke in the emergency department who underwent echocardiograms within 90 days, from 13 Canadian academic emergency departments from October 2006 to May 2017. Our outcome was clinically significant echocardiogram findings. RESULTS: In 7149 eligible patients, a clinically significant finding was found in 556 (7.8%). There were a further 2421 (33.9%) with potentially significant findings. History of heart failure (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.9) or coronary artery disease (OR, 2.7) were the factors most strongly associated with clinically significant echocardiogram findings, whereas young age, male sex, valvular heart disease, and infarct (any age) on neuroimaging were modestly associated (OR, 1.3-1.9). The model combining these predictors into a score (range: 0-15), had a C-statistic of 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.70). A cut point of 6 points or more classified 6.6% of cases as high likelihood, defined as > 15% for clinically significant echocardiogram findings. CONCLUSIONS: Echocardiography is a very useful test in the investigations of patients with TIA/minor stroke. We identified high-risk clinical features-combined to create a clinical decision rule-to identify which patients with TIA/minor stroke are likely to have clinically significant echocardiogram findings requiring an immediate change in management. These patients should have echocardiography prioritized, whereas others may continue to have echocardiography conducted in a less urgent fashion.