Interactions of cumulative load with biomarkers of cartilage turnover predict knee cartilage change over 2 years: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

The purpose was to investigate relationships of cumulative load and cartilage turnover biomarkers with 2-year changes in cartilage in knee osteoarthritis. From participants with Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grades of 1 to 3, cartilage thickness and transverse relaxation time (T2) were computed from 24-month (baseline) and 48-month magnetic resonance images. Cumulative load was the interaction term of the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE) and body mass index (BMI). Serum cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP) and the nitrated form of type II collagen (Coll2-1 NO2) were collected at baseline. Multiple regressions (adjusted for baseline age, KL grade, cartilage measures, pain, comorbidity) evaluated the relationships of cumulative load and biomarkers with 2-year changes. In 406 participants (63.7 (8.7) years), interactions of biomarkers with cumulative load weakly predicted 2-year cartilage changes: (i) COMP × cumulative load explained medial tibia thickness change (R2 increased 0.062 to 0.087, p < 0.001); (ii) Coll2-1 NO2 × cumulative load explained central medial femoral T2 change (R2 increased 0.177 to 0.210, p < 0.001); and (iii) Coll2-1 NO2 × cumulative load explained lateral tibia T2 change (R2 increased 0.166 to 0.188, p < 0.001). Moderate COMP or Coll2-1 NO2 at baseline appeared protective. High COMP or Coll2-1 NO2, particularly with high BMI and low PASE, associated with worsening cartilage. Moderate serum concentrations of cartilage turnover biomarkers, at high and low physical activity, associated with maintained cartilage outcomes over 2 years. In conclusion, high concentrations of cartilage turnover biomarkers, particularly with high BMI and low physical activity, associated with knee cartilage thinning and increasing T2 over 2 years.Key Points• Higher quality cartilage may be better able to tolerate a larger cumulative load than poor quality cartilage.• Among participants enrolled in the Osteoarthritis Initiative Biomarkers Consortium Project, a representation of cumulative load exposure and its interaction with cartilage turnover biomarkers were weakly related with 2-year change in knee cartilage.• These findings suggest that cartilage turnover is a factor that modifies the relationship between loading exposure and cartilage loss in knee OA.