Sector-level socio-economic and environmental effects of large-scale hydropower initiatives -- a multi-region multi-phase model for the Wudongde Hydropower Station

Large-scale hydropower projects (LHPs) supply a huge amount of clean electricity and could help achieve global/national carbon emission mitigation goals. The development of LHPs generally has tremendous impacts on multiple regions and different socio-economic and environmental (SEE) effects on various sectors at construction and operational phases. Thus, it is significant to quantitively evaluate the distributive and distinctive SEE effects of large-scale hydropower initiatives from a sectoral perspective to provide references for the construction or planning of new water conservancy projects. In this study, a multi-region multi-phase SEE analysis model (MMSEE) has been developed through incorporating a multi-regional input–output model (with 5 regions and 129 sectors) and ecological network analysis. The proposed model was first applied to assess the sector-level SEE effects of the newly completed Wudongde Hydropower Station (WDD) at its construction and operational phases. Results show that the total output and employment of the sector of Construction had been significantly affected by the construction investment of WDD project and the employment increase of this sector accounted for 75% and 63% of the total increase of employment in Sichuan and Yunnan, respectively. Changes in the total outputs of Hydropower sector in Sichuan, Yunnan, and the whole Yangtze River Economic Belt were the biggest at operational phase. In addition, more attention should be paid to sectors of Thermal power, Other manufacturing, and Chemical industry in Guangdong to accomplish future environmental goals by 2025. Results also indicate that the WDD project would help Guangdong save 30% emission reduction space and achieve the emission reduction target of the “14th Five-Year Plan” of this province. In addition, the modeling framework can be extended to evaluate other LHPs around the world and provide policy formulation references for decision-makers.