Simulation of ice phenology on Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada

AbstractA one‐dimensional thermodynamic lake ice model (Canadian Lake Ice Model or CLIMo) is used to simulate ice phenology on Great Slave Lake (GSL) in the Mackenzie River basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. Model simulations are validated against freeze‐up and break‐up dates, as well as ice thickness and on‐ice snow depth measurements made in situ at three sites on GSL (Back Bay near Yellowknife, 1960–91; Hay River, 1965–91; Charlton Bay near Fort Reliance, 1977–90). Freeze‐up and break‐up dates from the lake ice model are also compared with those derived from SSM/I 85 GHz passive microwave imagery over the entire lake surface (1988–99).Results show a very good agreement between observed and simulated ice thickness and freeze‐up/break‐up dates over the 30–40 years of observations, particularly for the Back Bay and Hay River sites. CLIMo simulates the ice thickness and annual freeze‐up/break‐dates with a mean error of 7 cm and 4 days respectively. However, some limitations have been identified regarding the rather simplistic approach used to characterize the temporal evolution of snow cover on ice. Future model improvements will therefore focus on this particular aspect, through linkage or coupling to a snow model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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