Development of non-deterministic energy-water-carbon nexus planning model: A case study of Shanghai, China

Energy, water and carbon are closely intertwined. The conflicts among increasing energy demand, declining water resource and tightening emission target have put tremendous pressures on the regional sustainable development, particularly for the metropolitan areas. This study aims at developing an integrated modelling system for supporting the energy-water-carbon nexus system planning in Shanghai. A variety of policy scenarios associated with carbon emission cap and renewable power ratio under multiple uncertainties are examined. To deal with uncertainties expressed as interval values and probability distributions in the nexus system, a mixed-integer interval chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming method is developed. The obtained results disclose that the electricity generation scheme and the power mix would gradually transit from a high water-intensity and fossil-fuel dominated structure to a low water-intensity and renewable-energy based one over the planning period (2021–2035). Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, peak carbon emissions would decrease by [5.48, 9.26] × 106t under introduction of the emission cap constraint. These findings would address the issue of the tradeoff between economic objective and system sustainability, and thus provide reasonable insights into the coordinated planning and management of the energy-water-carbon nexus system.