An Integrated Bi-level Optimization Model for Planning Water-Food-Energy Nexus System Under Uncertainty

In this study, a fuzzy bi-level programming (FBP) method is developed for planning water-food-energy (WFE) nexus system. FBP can tackle fuzzy uncertainty expressed as flexible variable and balance the conflict existed in different decision levels. Then, an FBP-WFE model is formulated for Amu Darya River Basin (ARB), in which two-level stakeholders are involved. The upper-level decision maker aims to maximize system benefit, and the lower-level decision maker aims to maximize food production. Three countries, fourteen states, fifteen water users and six planning periods (2021–2050) are also involved in the developed model. Major findings are (i) agricultural sector is the largest water user in ARB (accounting for 78.2%), implying that improving irrigation efficiency and reducing agricultural water allocation are crucial for alleviating water scarcity problem; (ii) there is competition for water resources between electricity generation and food production, with the increasing electricity demand level, the food production would decrease by 2.6‰. The obtained results can provide policy supports for decision makers to alleviate water shortage, ensure food security and energy supply security.