Planning Water-Food-Energy Nexus System Towards Sustainable Development Under Uncertainty

In this study, a copula-based stochastic fractional programming (CSFP) method is developed for planning water-food-energy nexus (WFEN) system. CSFP method can deal with bi-objective optimization problems and address correlated uncertainties within nexus system. Then, a CSFP-WFEN model is proposed and applied to an arid region, where 16 scenarios with different joint probabilities associated with various water availabilities, land resources and available electricity are analysed. Major findings are: (i) water allocation for Uzbekistan should be primarily constrained for alleviating water shortage risk over time; (ii) scheme of agricultural production should consider ramping up cash crop and shrinking livestock farming for adapting limited resources and enhancing the marginal benefit; (iii) from 2021 to 2035, hydropower generation would increase by 10.3% and thermal power would decrease by 3.5%, which implies that electricity generation patterns should change towards renewable energy in the future; (iv) correlated uncertainties (corresponding to the joint probability risk) have a significant influence on marginal benefit and water allocation patterns, decision makers should adjust strategies towards sustainable development according to risk attitude and local resources conditions under uncertainty.