Pancreatic Cystic Lesions on MRI: What Is The Likelihood of a Present or Future Diagnosis of Pancreatic Carcinoma?

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) are followed for years due to older and likely biased works demonstrating a strong association with pancreatic carcinoma; more recent data are needed clarifying this relationship. PURPOSE: To determine the association between PCLs on MRI and a synchronous or future diagnosis of pancreatic carcinoma. STUDY TYPE: Single-center retrospective cohort. POPULATION: A total of 192 patients (111 female, 58%) with median age 66 years (range 26-87 years) with PCLs on abdominal MRI from 2011 to 2016. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCES: 1.5 T and 3 T, including T₂ WI, T₁ WI, diffusion weighted imaging and contrast-enhanced T₁ WI. ASSESSMENT: Each PCL was reviewed independently by 2 of 10 fellowship-trained abdominal radiologists. Fukuoka guideline worrisome features and high-risk stigmata were evaluated. Follow-up imaging and clinical notes were reviewed within a system that captures pancreatic carcinoma for the region, for a median follow-up of 67 months (interquartile range: 43-88 months). STATISTICAL TESTS: Pancreatic carcinoma prevalence and incidence rate for future carcinoma with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Fisher exact test, logistic regression with odds ratios (OR) and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test were used to assess PCL morphologic features with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test used to assess for normality. P < 0.05 defined statistical significance. RESULTS: The prevalence of pancreatic carcinoma on initial MRI showing a PCL was 2.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 5.2%). Thickened/enhancing cyst wall was associated with pancreatic carcinoma, OR 52 (95% CI: 4.5, 1203). Of 189 patients with a PCL but without pancreatic carcinoma at the time of initial MRI, one developed high-grade dysplasia and none developed invasive carcinoma for an incidence rate of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.02, 5.43) and 0 (95% CI: 0, 3.59) cases per 1000 person-years, respectively. DATA CONCLUSION: A low percentage of patients with a PCL on MRI had a pancreatic carcinoma at the time of initial evaluation and none developed carcinoma over a median 67 months of follow-up. EVIDENCE LEVEL: 3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: 5.