Preliminary Analysis of Permafrost Degradation in Ingraham Trail, Northwest Territories

Global warming has become a critical issue that needs attention and remedies to the problems it causes. As the ground warms, the permafrost soil thaws and turns from continuous to discontinuous or sporadic, which induces various kinds oef impacts and risks to the globe. One major problem that the thawing permafrost brings is the differential settlement, which is primarily related to the damage of the human infrastructures in the permafrost area. Northwest Territories (NWT) is a typical region in Canada that is mostly covered by permafrost. Yellowknife is one of the most populated areas, where the permafrost is extensively discontinuously distributed. Ingraham Trail in NWT serves as major access to Yellowknife. This paper investigates the permafrost degradation impacts along Ingraham Trail by focusing on the vertical settlement of the pavement structure. A numerical model was generated to investigate such impacts during freeze–thaw cycles. The varied settlements were simulated for the same season from 2013 to 2020. In addition, with anticipated impacts of climate change and water table change caused by global warming, the increasing thaw settlements for November from 2020 to 2050 were projected. The settlements with the potential permafrost protection (i.e., insulation materials) were also analyzed using the model, corroborating its primary function with significantly decreased frost heaves in pavements.