Trends in Land Evapotranspiration over Canada for the Period 1960–2000 Based on In Situ Climate Observations and a Land Surface Model

Abstract An assessment of annual trends in actual evapotranspiration (AET) and associated meteorological inputs is performed at 101 locations across Canada with available long-term hourly surface climate observations to determine if AET in Canada is increasing in relation to observed increases in air temperature. AET was estimated for the dominant land cover class, with representative soil and leaf area index conditions, within a 50 km × 50 km window around each location for the period 1960–2000. The Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) land surface model, which simulates coupled carbon, energy, and water cycles, was applied to estimate AET on a half-hourly basis at each location using in situ meteorological measurements and ambient atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Increases in annual AET, of up to 0.73% yr−1, were identified at 81 locations, and decreases, of up to 0.25% yr−1, were found at the remaining 20 stations. Statistically significant increasing trends were detected in 35% of the locations with the majority corresponding to Atlantic and Pacific coastal regions. Increasing trends were generally related to increasing temperature and total downwelling surface radiation trends in eastern Canada and increasing temperature, surface radiation, and precipitation trends in western Canada. In sharp contrast to other studies based on simpler AET models, annual AET trends in the prairie climate zone were mixed in terms of increases and decreases with no locations showing statistically significant trends. Future studies focused on scaling AET model estimates to subbasins or basins are required both to account for this spatial variability in soil conditions and to permit water budget closure validation.