Analysis of uncertainty of water resource bearing capacity based on seasonal adjustment

For better reflection of the relationship between water resource state and human living, a new calculation formula of water resource bearing capacity was suggested as a measure index; and the uncertainty of water resource bearing capacity was analyzed. The seasonal adjusting method for treating the water resource bearing capacity was suggested. The measured data of certainty of controlled section of Liuxi River from 1991 to 2002 in Guangzhou were used as example to analyze the change rule and the development tendency of water resource bearing capacity after seasonal adjustment were analyzed. The comparison of forecasted and measured values was carried in the year 2003. The water resource bearing capacity of the section possessed marked tendency and seasonal characters. The forecast results accorded with the actual situation, explaining that the seasonal adjustment method possessed accuracy and effectualness in analysis and forecast of water resource bearing capacity.