Application of an interval-based simulation methodology to water quality risk

By defining a Degree measure for interval number to describe water quality risk, accidental-happened risk in a section of Xiangjiang River is simulated with a interval-based simulation methodology combining finite difference under the non-steady condition. The results reveal that the risk values described by degree measure can effectively reflect its variation process as well. In addition, sensitivity analysis also proves that the simulated results are not sensitive to the change of the parameters except that of the flow velocity parameter during certain time segments. Under the condition of inexact cognition of river water quality environment, therefore, the approach proposed by this paper for research on water environmental risk has its feasibility and practicability and then supplements the shortage of traditional probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. Moreover, this study on accidental-happened risk supplies theoretical and decision-making basis for future work on risk real-time control and risk management.