DESPU: Dynamic Optimization for Energy Systems Planning Under Uncertainty

The planning of energy systems is associated with various uncertainties. Such uncertainties may only be expressed by interval numbers or fuzzy sets rather than probability distributions. In addition, issues of capacity expansion related to timing, sizing and siting under such uncertainties needs to be addressed. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop a dynamic optimization model for energy systems planning under uncertainty (DESPU) through integrating interval-parameter, fuzzy and mixed integer programming techniques within an energy systems management framework. The developed methodology is then applied to a hypothetical regional energy system. The results indicate that DESPU has advantages in reflecting complexities of various uncertainties as well as dealing with problems of capacity expansion within energy systems.