Urban water resources allocation under the uncertainties of water supply and demand: a case study of Urumqi, China

In recent years, Urumqi has been suffering from growing water resources shortage due to climate change and socioeconomic activities. Integrated water resources management approach is urgent for regional sustainable development. However, uncertainties around the supply and demand side are problematic for regional water resources planning and policy-making. To address these uncertainties, an inexact multi-stage dual-stochastic programming (IMDSP) was proposed for supporting urban water resources management in Urumqi, China. The developed model can manage the uncertainties of parameters and stochastic variables through the incorporation of interval-parameter programming (IPP), dual-stochastic programming (DSP) and multi-stage optimization programming (MSP). Strategic water-allocation plans that combine surface water, groundwater, diverse water users, and water sources were obtained through the solutions of this model. Varied benefits and recourse costs, water supply risk analysis were conducted in detailed computational results. The obtained results can help decision makers identify optimized water-allocation schemes under water scarcity and environment deterioration.