Toward a sustainable water resources management in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration: a scenario analysis of combined strategy regulation with Green Z-score criterion

In this study, a sustainable water resources management (WRM) model with scenario-based mixed fuzzy-stochastic method with Green Z-score criterion method (SFGZ) is developed for coordinating urban development and water resources conservation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei district (denoted as JJJ region). The SFGZ can not only handle uncertainties regarded as possibility and probability distributions, but also reflect the risk attitudes of policymakers in the process of water resources management (WRM). Various combined strategy-regulation scenarios with population-socioeconomic regulation, water utilization efficiency and water recycling ratio can be designed to support policy adjustment. Meanwhile, various optimism coefficients, robustness coefficients and credibility levels under Green Z-score criterion can reflect comprehensive uncertainties and complexities in a WMR issue, producing optimized water policy with a robust manner (avoiding systematic risk violation). It can prompt policymakers to identify and rectify current strategies in JJJ region, with aim to generate sustainable water policy for alleviating interregional water crisis.