Three-perspective energy-carbon nexus analysis for developing China's policies of CO2-emission mitigation

Energy usage and CO₂ emission have intimate and inseparable linkages. The growth of energy usage causes an increase in CO₂ emissions, which will in turn constrain the related energy policies and challenge the energy-system stability. It is essential to quantify China's CO₂ emission inventories embodied in production-driven, demand-driven and supply-driven chains considering different energy types. A Three-Perspective Energy-Carbon Nexus model is developed to facilitate comprehensive CO₂ emission-reduction analysis in China. The model incorporates environmental input-output analysis and ecological network analysis within a general framework to clarify the relationships among provinces in terms of the production-based, consumption-based and income-based accountings. A new indicator, indirect emission dominant factor, is for the first time examined to evaluate the dominant capabilities of indirect emissions. It is discovered that the emissions triggered by the demand-side are not sensitive to energy types. Furthermore, the changes of integral flow control intensity in each province are insignificant from consumption-based and income-based perspectives. Final demand contributes 80% of consumption-based emissions and gross value-added creation leads to a total of 82% income-based CO₂ emissions in China in 2012. When controlling emissions from multiple perspectives, traditional methods may not be effective since they do not consider the forms of emissions; some methods (e.g., product allocation) are not suitable for suppressing indirect emissions. Moreover, the prosperity of developed regions (e.g. Guangdong) highly rely on support from underdeveloped regions (e.g. Inner Mongolia). Some underdeveloped provinces are receptors of CO₂, while the developed ones are emitting CO₂ to the system without assuming their emission-reduction responsibilities. In addition, secondary energy consumptions in developed regions are conducive in increasing their emission contributions to the system. In this research, an innovative perspective is initiated to disclose the energy-carbon interconnections across Chinese provinces. The obtained findings could help support the formulation of China's CO₂ emission-reduction policies.