High-resolution projections of temperature changes over China

Planning of mitigation and adaptation strategies to the changing climate is of great significance to China, due to its large population and fast growing economy. This study presents a high-resolution regional climate simulation for China using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. A historical simulation from 1980 to 2005 was performed and validated, while for the future two simulations from 2006 to 2099 were performed under two emission scenarios (i.e. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The projections indicate that China is likely to suffer a significant temperature rise by the end of the century, with greater changes and uncertainties under RCP 8.5. The presented study could provide decision support for the policy making of mitigation and adaptation strategies.