Climate Change and the Performance of Pavement Infrastructure in Southern Canada: Context and Case Study

There is ample evidence in the engineering literature to suggest that pavement infrastructure is sensitive to climate, principally through the deterioration or deformation processes of thermal cracking, rutting, and frost heave and thaw settlement. These processes are introduced in the paper and explained within the context of pavement management. Several empirically-derived indicators, many of them used in pavement design or to aid in operational decision-making, have been developed by engineers and are available to evaluate the potential effects of climate change. Three such indicators were applied in a Muskoka, Ontario case study to baseline climate data and a conservative mid-century scenario of climate change (HadCM3-A2x). The results of the analysis illustrate that even modest climate change may have important implications for the long-term maintenance of the Canadian road network.