Prediction of Recidivism in Incest Offenders

Approximately 6.5 years after their conviction, the percentage of incest offenders who had committed a sexual, violent, or criminal offense of any kind was 6.4, 12.4, and 26.7, respectively. The sexual recidivists scored higher on the Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (MAST), and the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). The violent recidivists had higher MAST and PCL-R scores as well as more violence in their police records. Regarding any criminal recidivism, recidivists were older and reported higher rates of being physically abused, and being removed from their homes prior to 16 years of age. They demonstrated more hostility on the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory, and higher MAST and PCL-R scores. They also had more previous charges or convictions for sexual, violent, and criminal acts. A combination of total criminal offenses, PCL-R, age, and the number of previous sexual offenses correctly classified 97.6% of the nonrecidivists and 35.4% of the recidivists for any reoffense.