Tube hydroforming is an attractive manufacturing process in the automotive industry because it has several advantages over alternative methods. In order to determine the reliability of the process, a new method to assess the probability of failure is proposed in this paper. The method is based on the reliability theory and the forming limit diagram, which has been extensively used in metal forming as the criteria of formability. From the forming limit band in the forming limit diagram, the reliability of the forming process can be evaluated. A tube hydroforming process of free bulging is then introduced as an example to illustrate the approach. The results show this technique to be an innovative approach to avoid failure during tube hydroforming.