Threat assessment for Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus) in the Salish Sea

Like many forage fish species, Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus) play a key role in nearshore marine ecosystems as an important prey source for a diverse array of predators in the northeastern Pacific. However, the primary threats to Pacific sand lance and their habitat are poorly defined due to a lack of systematic data. Crucial information needed to assess their population status is also lacking including basic knowledge of their local and regional abundance and distribution. Sand lance are currently listed as ‘not evaluated’ under the IUCN red list and they have not been assessed by US and Canadian agencies. This hampers management and policy efforts focused on their conservation. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a three-part, structured expert elicitation to assess the vulnerability of Salish Sea sand lance populations. Experts were asked to list and rank key threats to Salish Sea sand lance and/or their habitat, to further quantify the vulnerability of sand lance to identified threats using a vulnerability matrix, and to predict the population trajectory in 25 years from today. Impacts associated with climate change (e.g. sea level rise, sea temperature rise, ocean acidification, and extreme weather) consistently ranked high as threats of concern in the ranking exercise and quantified vulnerability scores. Nearly every expert predicted the population will have declined from current levels in 25 years. These results suggest sand lance face numerous threats and may be in decline under current conditions. This research provides vital information about which threats pose the greatest risk to the long-term health of sand lance populations and their habitat. Managers can use this information to prioritize which threats to address. Future research to reliably quantify population size, better understand the roles of natural and anthropogenic impacts, and to identify the most cost-effective actions to mitigate multiple threats, is recommended.