Copula-based joint risk analysis of future Meiyu duration and intensity over China

Meiyu is a special precipitation anomaly taking place in China, Japan, and Korea. In China, Meiyu always happens in the lower reaches (LR) of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). Its traditional characteristics have changed in recent years with global warming. Meiyu is getting more and more extreme. It potentially threatened the energy supply. But precise projections are still lacking. A Meiyu projection and risk analysis approach (MPRA) is developed in this study. It is aimed to give a comprehensive picture of future Meiyu considering multiple synoptic patterns (SPs) based on statistical downscaling and K-means clustering. Multilevel Meiyu recurrence risks will be quantified by the Copula function, and the effects on food, energy and water resources will be discussed. Results suggest that the future Meiyu will last longer and have much more rainfall compared with the 2000s (i.e., 1985–2014). Considering four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), Meiyu will be most severe under SSP585, with 16.27 days and 38.19 mm/grid more than in the 2000s. The high-pressure anomalies around YRB can easily trigger long-duration and high-intensity Meiyu. The multilevel heavy Meiyu (i.e., with 5, 10, 20, and 50 return periods) will keep increasing only under SSP585 in the 21st century, with 10 times increase in total conditional probabilities. Intensified Meiyu will threaten food and water energy, but somehow drive the energy transition. It is suggested to implement emission reduction to mitigate climate change and improve the resilience to Meiyu risks.