Abstract Soil temperature changes over the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) exert considerable influence on regional climate. Here, we identify a distinct reversal from cooling during 1950–1983 (−0.169°C decade −1 ) to significant warming during 1984–2014 (0.388°C decade −1 ), exceeding the global average by 29%–87%. The early cooling period was mainly driven by interactions between greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols (AER), with AER exerting a dominant cooling influence. After 1984, the GHG contribution increased from 11.2%–29% to 40%–47.9%, leading to accelerated warming. The influence of interactions was strongly modulated by the relative dominance of GHG and AER, acting as a critical factor in the reversal and amplification of shallow‐soil temperature trend across the QTP. These findings highlight the sensitivity of high‐altitude soil thermal regimes to shifts in anthropogenic forcing.
Plain Language Summary Soil temperature is a key indicator of ecological and environmental change, integrating the effects of various surface and subsurface processes. On the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), soil temperature variations influence permafrost thawing, carbon cycling, hydrological processes, and biodiversity. In this study, we apply a quantitative attribution framework to separate the contributions of greenhouse gases (GHG), aerosols (AER), and their interactions (INT) to shallow‐soil temperature changes over the QTP during 1950–2014. We reveal a marked reversal from cooling during 1950–1983 to accelerated warming during 1984–2014, with the latter exceeding the global average warming rate by 29%–87%. The post‐1984 warming was primarily driven by the increasing dominance of GHG, while INT emerged as the critical factor triggering the reversal and amplifying the subsequent warming trend. These findings offer insights into soil temperature dynamics under future climate scenarios.
Key Points From 1950 to 2014, shallow soil on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau shifted from cooling to warming around 1984 Since 1984, greenhouse gases (GHG) accounted for the highest contribution to shallow‐soil temperature changes at 40%–47.9%, dominating the warming Interactions between GHG and aerosols were critical in reversing and amplifying the warming trend