A Framework for Short-Term Forecasting of Extreme Weather Events

This paper proposes a machine learning model to predict the accuracy of extreme rainfall events by exploiting the concept of quality control chart in operations management. In this framework, we introduce the 3σ framework, a novel approach to short-term rainfall forecasting by presenting the rainfall process in a statistical quality control perspective. The framework consists of two parts: (1) a 3σ chart and (2) a machine learning classification model. Rainfall intensity is categorized into three classes based on the 3σ chart. The model is able to effectively capture sequential rainfall trends and predict precipitation classes up to 24 hours in advance. The results indicate that the framework achieves high performance in key metrics, including loss, precision, and recall, with consistent alignment between the training and validation phases. Furthermore, the comparison between predicted and actual rainfall classes confirms the model’s effectiveness in detecting both the occurrence and magnitude of severe rainfall events, although slight overestimations were observed in isolated cases. In general, the framework has significant potential for integration into real-time early warning systems, helping to reduce the impact of climate-driven extreme weather events by allowing faster and more interpretable alerts for floods, landslides, and related hazards.