Advancing Imminent Fracture Risk Prediction: Integrating Machine Learning with Enhanced Feature Engineering

Osteoporotic fractures pose a major healthcare burden, particularly among aging populations. Traditional tools like FRAX estimate 10-year fracture risk but miss Imminent Fracture Risk (IFR), defined as fractures within two years. We trained machine learning models, including ensemble methods, on data from 2,949 patients in Ontario’s Fracture Screening and Prevention Program. Two-year performance was modest (PR-AUC≈$$\approx $$0.45, representing …