Intensifying Extreme Rainfall Will Threaten the Socioeconomic Development of the Yangtze River Basin

ABSTRACT The Yangtze River Basin (YRB) has always been characterised by the abundant rainfall. The rainfall in YRB will become more extreme in the future. An extreme rainfall projection and risk analysis (ERPR) approach is developed to identify the future extreme heavy rainfall (ER), decompose the spatio‐temporal features for ER indices (ERI), explore the role of abnormal sea level pressure (SLP) on ER and quantify the ER risks (ERR) to society and economics. Results suggest that the ERI will increase in the future. The highest ERI is projected under SSP585, which is 1.2 times greater than the baseline. High ERIs are more likely to be concentrated in the southern and eastern YRB. Based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition, the spatial heterogeneity of ERI is projected to decline in the future. The homogenous distribution pattern accounts for an average of 11.76%. SLP anomaly is supposed to be a pre‐signal for ER. The earliest signal is detected in SSP126 and SSP585. The ERR is higher in the long‐term future; it is 1.63 times higher than the short‐term ERR. The Yangtze River Delta is projected to undertake the highest risk caused by ER in the future. The ERPR provides a comprehensive analysis for regional climate extremes. It is applicable to other climate extremes in other regions. It is expected to help improve the climate risk management system.