OBJECTIVE: A proportional hazard model was applied to develop a large-scale prognostic model and nomogram incorporating clinicopathological characteristics, histological type, tumor differentiation grade, and tumor deposit count to provide clinicians and patients diagnosed with colon cancer liver metastases (CLM) a more comprehensive and practical outcome measure.
METHODS: Using the Transparent Reporting of multivariable prediction models for individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, this study identified 14,697 patients diagnosed with CLM from 1975 to 2017 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 21 registry database. Patients were divided into a modeling group (n=9800), an internal validation group (n=4897) using computerized randomization. An independent external validation cohort (n=60) was obtained. Univariable and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify prognostic predictors for overall survival (OS). Subsequently, the nomogram was constructed, and the verification was undertaken by receiver operating curves (AUC) and calibration curves.
RESULTS: Histological type, tumor differentiation grade, and tumor deposit count were independent prognostic predictors for CLM. The nomogram consisted of age, sex, primary site, T category, N category, metastasis of bone, brain or lung, surgery, and chemotherapy. The model achieved excellent prediction power on both internal (mean AUC=0.811) and external validation (mean AUC=0.727), respectively, which were significantly higher than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM system.
CONCLUSION: This study proposes a prognostic nomogram for predicting 1- and 2-year survival based on histopathological and population-based data of CLM patients developed using TRIPOD guidelines. Compared with the TNM stage, our nomogram has better consistency and calibration for predicting the OS of CLM patients.