Scholarly edition
The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters
Abstract
As a group, market forecasters are overconfident in the sense that they are miscalibrated. While overconfidence is persistent, respondents do exhibit some degree of rational learning in that they widen confidence intervals after failure as much as they narrow them after success. Market experience exacerbates overconfidence, primarily through knowledge deterioration.
Authors
Deaves R; Lüders E; Schröder M
Pagination
pp. 402-412
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
September 2010
DOI
10.1016/j.jebo.2010.05.001