Pathologies of precision: A Bayesian account of goals, habits, and episodic foresight in addiction

The brain is thought to implement two decision-making systems: a goal-directed system in which decisions are made through planning on the basis of action-outcome relationships, and a habitual system in which behaviour reflects stimulus-response associations. A prominent theory of addiction sees it as arising due to an extreme dominance of habit over goal-directed action. The balance between these systems is thought to be arbitrated by the …