Climate change impacts on Ontario wind power resource

BackgroundThe availability and reliability of wind power depend largely on current and future climate conditions, which may vary in the context of climate change. A high resolution regional climate model (PRECIS) was used for dynamic downscaling of the future wind speed over Ontario. The changes of wind power density and power production were further investigated through case studies.ResultsThe spatial pattern and the magnitude of wind speed from PRECIS simulation, Wind Energy Atlas and the observation indicated a successful climate simulation. Climate modelling indicated that there would be a decrease of up to 5% in wind speed over southern Ontario from present to the period of 2071–2100. It was showed in the case studies that the changes of wind power production were not in proportion to the changes of average wind speed, due to the variations of wind speed distribution.ConclusionThe decrease of projected wind speed would be more intense in A2 than in B2 scenario, showing statistically significant differences in the grid cell mean wind speed. The changes of wind power production may not be in proportion to the changes of average wind speed. It would be reasonable to develop onshore or offshore wind energy industry around Georgian Bay and James Bay, considering the projected increasing wind speeds within these areas.