Parameterized coastal fragilities and their application to aging port structures subjected to surge and wave

This study proposes a methodology for the development of parameterized fragility models for open type port structures subjected to hurricane-induced storm surge and wave loading, while also considering the potential influences of time-dependent aging and deterioration. The proposed framework uses a simulation-based strategy to propagate uncertainty in loads, geometrical configurations, material properties and capacities associated with different exposure conditions and failure modes (i.e. uplift, flexure, shear). Alternative classification-type statistical learning methods are tested to derive parameterized fragility models for each failure mode in order to evaluate limit state exceedance probability given a vector of deterministic or probabilistic parameters that define the structure and exposure conditions. Such parameterized coastal fragility models enable rapid application to a portfolio of aging port structures to explore the impact of current and future storm conditions, as illustrated via case study application for two terminals located in the Houston Ship Channel. The results reveal the dominant failure mode, spatial distribution of failure probabilities for structures within and across terminals, and influence of aging on surge and wave vulnerability of port structures.