Predicting mortality among critically ill patients with acute kidney injury treated with renal replacement therapy: Development and validation of new prediction models

PURPOSE: Severe acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with a significant risk of mortality and persistent renal replacement therapy (RRT) dependence. The objective of this study was to develop prediction models for mortality at 90-day and 1-year following RRT initiation in critically ill patients with AKI. METHODS: All patients who commenced RRT in the intensive care unit for AKI at a tertiary care hospital between 2007 and 2014 constituted the development cohort. We evaluated the external validity of our mortality models using data from the multicentre OPTIMAL-AKI study. RESULTS: The development cohort consisted of 594 patients, of whom 320(54%) died and 40 (15% of surviving patients) remained RRT-dependent at 90-day Eleven variables were included in the model to predict 90-day mortality (AUC:0.79, 95%CI:0.76-0.82). The performance of the 90-day mortality model declined upon validation in the OPTIMAL-AKI cohort (AUC:0.61, 95%CI:0.54-0.69) and showed modest calibration. Similar results were obtained for mortality model at 1-year. CONCLUSIONS: Routinely collected variables at the time of RRT initiation have limited ability to predict mortality in critically ill patients with AKI who commence RRT.